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<channel>
	<title>Marc Gawley</title>
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	<link>http://marcgawley.com</link>
	<description>Show me the numbers</description>
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		<title>Marc Gawley</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com</link>
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		<item>
		<title>Half in, half out</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com/2013/05/12/half-in-half-out/</link>
		<comments>http://marcgawley.com/2013/05/12/half-in-half-out/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 May 2013 22:27:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Gawley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[surprising numbers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[population density]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://marcgawley.com/?p=1165</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[More people live inside this area than live outside: You might also like this graphic of population density.<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1165&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>More people live inside this area than live outside:</p>
<p><a href="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/half-worlds-population.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1166" alt="Half worlds population" src="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/half-worlds-population.jpg?w=630&#038;h=355" width="630" height="355" /></a></p>
<p>You might also like this <a href="http://marcgawley.com/2011/10/18/fitting-in/">graphic of population density</a>.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Half worlds population</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>Business Travel Tips</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com/2013/04/02/business-travel-tips/</link>
		<comments>http://marcgawley.com/2013/04/02/business-travel-tips/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Apr 2013 16:19:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Gawley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Productivity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[travel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business travel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[missing flights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tips]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://marcgawley.com/?p=1157</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For most periods in the last decade I&#8217;ve travelled internationally a couple (or more) times a week for business, often at times of the day that are &#8216;my hours&#8217;. There&#8217;s a tradeoff to be made in terms of planning to get to the airport/train station with less time to spare (and therefore increasing leisure time) [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1157&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For most periods in the last decade I&#8217;ve travelled internationally a couple (or more) times a week for business, often at times of the day that are &#8216;my hours&#8217;. There&#8217;s a tradeoff to be made in terms of planning to get to the airport/train station with less time to spare (and therefore increasing leisure time) at the expense of a higher probability of arriving too late if there is a delay on the way.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s say that planning the transit to arrive 90 minutes before departure has a 99% success rate, and that reducing this to 60 minutes corresponds to a 95% chance of getting on the flight. I ran some numbers, and at a cost of an incremental 3hrs of waiting time for each missed departure, plus £200 fees, then at 2 trips per week you&#8217;re buying back 40 hours per year at £20 per hour. Wouldn&#8217;t you take a £800 wage cut (pre-tax) for 1 extra week of holiday per year? Of course, you need to train yourself to be not stressed at the possibility of missing your flight, and accept that you will miss a small number each year.</p>
<blockquote><p>If you&#8217;re a frequent traveller and always make every flight, then consider that you might be getting to the airport too early.</p></blockquote>
<p>In <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Checklist-Manifesto-How-Things-Right/dp/0312430000">The Checklist Manifesto</a>, the author discusses the use of checklists to bring about improvements in frequently performed activities. I have a list I use for packing for trips (hardly as important as a pilot&#8217;s take-off checklist!) but does mean I pack slightly quicker, don&#8217;t have to put much thought in, and don&#8217;t forget to take e.g., the iPhone charging cable because it&#8217;s plugged out of site under the bed that weekend.</p>
<p>That said, if you are frequently travelling to the same client site then consider buying all of your usual toiletries, electric tooth brushes, razors, training shoes, cables, etc, twice, and keeping one set of all of these at the client site. That&#8217;s a lot less to pack and think about. More <a href="http://blog.penelopetrunk.com/2012/04/27/how-to-travel-for-business-if-you-travel-a-lot/">business travel tips</a> ideas here.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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			<media:title type="html">marcgawley</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>Chess</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com/2013/01/08/chess/</link>
		<comments>http://marcgawley.com/2013/01/08/chess/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2013 20:13:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Gawley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[surprising numbers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chess]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[opening moves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unique position]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marcgawley.wordpress.com/?p=1137</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over 98% of expert games begin with 1 of 4 moves, out of a possible 20: I used to play the Grob (1.g4) and did quite well with it. It&#8217;s a trade off, making a slightly less good first move to very quickly get into positions that your opponent has never been in before and [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1137&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Over 98% of expert games begin with 1 of 4 moves, out of a possible 20:</p>
<p><a href="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/20130108-210720.jpg"><img src="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/20130108-210720.jpg?w=630" alt="20130108-210720.jpg" class="alignnone size-full" /></a></p>
<p>I used to play the Grob (1.g4) and did quite well with it. It&#8217;s a trade off, making a slightly less good first move to very quickly get into positions that your opponent has never been in before and needs to use up clock time to consider options from an unusually early stage of the game. </p>
<p>This is a tactic that Kasparov used against IBM&#8217;s Deep Blue, reaching a position after 3 moves that had only ever been seen once before at tournament level. </p>
<blockquote><p>in any long game of chess it&#8217;s quite likely that a position is reached that no two players in the history of humanity have encountered before. </p></blockquote>
<p>More in Nate Silver&#8217;s &#8216;The Signal and the Noise&#8217;.</p>
<br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/marcgawley.wordpress.com/1137/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/marcgawley.wordpress.com/1137/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1137&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">marcgawley</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">20130108-210720.jpg</media:title>
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		<title>Scarecrows for pikeys</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com/2012/12/31/scarecrows-for-pikeys/</link>
		<comments>http://marcgawley.com/2012/12/31/scarecrows-for-pikeys/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 11:50:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Gawley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Denton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manchester]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shoplifting]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://marcgawley.com/?p=1130</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A quick Google search seems to suggest that one reason to have staff greeting customers as they enter a shop is to deter shoplifters: Have your employees greet each customer as they enter the store. A shoplifter is less likely to go through with his crime if they think someone might be able to identify [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1130&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A quick Google search seems to suggest that one reason to have staff greeting customers as they enter a shop is to <a href="//www.ehow.com/how_2190526_prevent-shoplifting.html#ixzz2GfXg2h8Y">deter shoplifters</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Have your employees greet each customer as they enter the store. A shoplifter is less likely to go through with his crime if they think someone might be able to identify them</p></blockquote>
<p>Or, go for the scarecrow approach:</p>
<p><a href="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/scarecrowsforhumans.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1131" alt="ScarecrowsForHumans" src="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/scarecrowsforhumans.jpg?w=630"   /></a></p>
<p>Welcome to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crownpoint_North_Retail_Park">Denton.</a></p>
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			<media:title type="html">marcgawley</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">ScarecrowsForHumans</media:title>
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		<title>Football is not a matter of life and death</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com/2012/11/17/football-is-not-a-matter-of-life-and-death/</link>
		<comments>http://marcgawley.com/2012/11/17/football-is-not-a-matter-of-life-and-death/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Nov 2012 11:41:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Gawley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[surprising numbers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[heart attacks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://marcgawley.com/?p=1122</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I attended a lecture this week on research between stress and heart attacks, where this chart (from a New England Journal of Medicine paper) was displayed, showing incidences of heart attacks in the German population over the period of the 2006 Football World Cup, along with the data for previous years for comparison:<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1122&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I attended a lecture this week on research between stress and heart attacks, where this chart (from a <a href="http://www.stat.uni-muenchen.de/~helmut/Texte/Artikel_NJE.pdf">New England Journal of Medicine paper) </a>was displayed, showing incidences of heart attacks in the German population over the period of the 2006 Football World Cup, along with the data for previous years for comparison:</p>
<p><a href="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/heart-attacks-football-spectators.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1123" title="Heart Attacks Football Spectators" alt="" src="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/heart-attacks-football-spectators.png?w=630&#038;h=711" height="711" width="630" /></a></p>
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			<media:title type="html">marcgawley</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/heart-attacks-football-spectators.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Heart Attacks Football Spectators</media:title>
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		<title>Who&#8217;s your daddy?</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com/2012/11/06/whos-your-daddy/</link>
		<comments>http://marcgawley.com/2012/11/06/whos-your-daddy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Nov 2012 16:47:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Gawley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[we r no race]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://marcgawley.com/?p=1109</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I was a guest at the Brazilian embassy in London earlier this year, and had a DNA test done to assess the ancestry of my genes. The results are now in: I&#8217;m quite European it turns out. Who knew?! More here.<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1109&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was a guest at the Brazilian embassy in London earlier this year, and had a DNA test done to assess the ancestry of my genes.</p>
<p>The results are now in:</p>
<p><a href="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/marc-gawley-dna-ancestry.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1110" title="marc gawley DNA Ancestry" alt="" src="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/marc-gawley-dna-ancestry.png?w=630"   /></a></p>
<p>I&#8217;m quite European it turns out. Who knew?!</p>
<p><a href="http://wearenorace.com/pages/theproject">More here</a>.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">marcgawley</media:title>
		</media:content>

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			<media:title type="html">marc gawley DNA Ancestry</media:title>
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		<title>The FedEx arrow</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com/2012/11/05/the-fedex-arrow/</link>
		<comments>http://marcgawley.com/2012/11/05/the-fedex-arrow/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Nov 2012 13:40:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Gawley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[travel]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://marcgawley.com/?p=1106</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;d never noticed it before: Apparently it&#8217;s legendary among designers.<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1106&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d never noticed it before:</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="FedEx Arrow" alt="" src="http://www.fastcodesign.com/multisite_files/codesign/imagecache/inline-large/inline/2012/10/1671067-inline-1-inline-fedex-plane.jpg" height="422" width="642" /></p>
<p>Apparently it&#8217;s <a href="http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671067/the-story-behind-the-famous-fedex-logo-and-why-it-works">legendary among designers</a>.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">FedEx Arrow</media:title>
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		<title>Show me the numbers</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com/2012/11/04/show-me-the-numbers/</link>
		<comments>http://marcgawley.com/2012/11/04/show-me-the-numbers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Nov 2012 16:32:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Gawley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[surprising numbers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://marcgawley.com/?p=1102</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[No really, show me the numbers. That was too fast&#8230;here&#8217;s a clip from a competition where people are adding together 15 3-digit numbers: ; ; The world record is 1.70 seconds. Mental images of abacuses are the key. More here.<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1102&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No really, show me the numbers. That was too fast&#8230;here&#8217;s a clip from a competition where people are adding together 15 3-digit numbers:</p>
<p> ;</p>
<span class='embed-youtube' style='text-align:center; display: block;'><iframe class='youtube-player' type='text/html' width='630' height='385' src='http://www.youtube.com/embed/7ktpme4xcoQ?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;fs=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;wmode=transparent' frameborder='0'></iframe></span>
<p> ;</p>
<p>The world record is 1.70 seconds. Mental images of abacuses are the key.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/alexs-adventures-in-numberland/2012/oct/29/mathematics">More here</a>.</p>
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		<title>Heads I win, tails you lose</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com/2012/10/27/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose/</link>
		<comments>http://marcgawley.com/2012/10/27/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2012 13:40:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Gawley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[surprising numbers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[coin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MPs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[toss]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marcgawley.wordpress.com/?p=1091</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In an article by Tim Harford, it was reported that only 25% of Labour MPs were able to correctly answer the question &#8220;what is the probability of getting two heads when a coin is tossed twice?&#8221; For comparison, 30% of the general population got the question right.<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1091&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="http://timharford.com/2012/10/why-arent-we-doing-the-maths/">an article by Tim Harford</a>, it was reported that only 25% of Labour MPs were able to correctly answer the question &#8220;what is the probability of getting two heads when a coin is tossed twice?&#8221;<br />
For comparison, <a href="http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3054/Use-of-data-and-statistics.aspx">30% of the general population got the question right</a>.</p>
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		<title>Genes</title>
		<link>http://marcgawley.com/2012/10/24/genes/</link>
		<comments>http://marcgawley.com/2012/10/24/genes/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Oct 2012 15:13:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Gawley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[surprising numbers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human genome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lecture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UCL]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marcgawley.wordpress.com/?p=1085</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today I went to a &#8216;bite-sized lunchtime lecture&#8217; at UCL, and courtesy of Dr Sara Hillman learnt that a low birth weight child was a predictor of future diabetes in the father, and that in turn having a father who smoked was a predictor of the baby being born with a low birth weight. And [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=marcgawley.com&#038;blog=25124857&#038;post=1085&#038;subd=marcgawley&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today I went to a &#8216;<a href="http://events.ucl.ac.uk/event/event:cbg-h7ka67y4-jbwydm/ucl-bitesized-lunchtime-lecture-fetal-growth-and-how-to-get-published">bite-sized lunchtime lecture&#8217; at UCL</a>, and courtesy of Dr Sara Hillman learnt that a low birth weight child was a predictor of future diabetes in the father, and that in turn having a <em>father</em> who smoked was a predictor of the baby being born with a low birth weight.</p>
<p>And then across the road at the <a href="http://www.wellcomecollection.org/whats-on/exhibitions/medicine-now.aspx">Wellcome Trust</a> had a look at a set of books mapping all 23 chromosomes containing the complete human DNA sequence:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/dna-sequence-books.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1088" title="DNA sequence books" alt="" src="http://marcgawley.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/dna-sequence-books.jpg?w=630"   /></a></p>
<p>There are 3 billion letters in the books, and if you compared your own DNA to the sample in the book you&#8217;d find only a few million differences</p>
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